Retirement calculator
Calculate your FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) number and how many years until you can retire based on savings rate and expected returns.
Expected annual spending in retirement.
4% is standard (Trinity Study). Use 3.5% for 40+ year horizon.
Total investments + savings today.
How much you invest per month.
Portfolio expected annual return.
FIRE Number (Target Portfolio)
$1,500,000
Formula verified 9 September 2026
Gap to FIRE
$1,450,000
Years to Financial Independence
17.1
Months to Financial Independence
205
The exact month count behind the rounded years figure.
Monthly Income at FIRE
$5,000
Estimate only — not financial advice; lender terms, fees, and taxes vary. Read the full disclaimer ↓
Projected end-of-year portfolio value, using the same monthly growth and contributions as the calculator, until the FIRE number is reached (capped at 50 years).
| Year | Contributions This Year | Portfolio Value | % of FIRE Number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $36,000 | $91,500 | 6% |
| 2 | $36,000 | $136,444 | 9% |
| 3 | $36,000 | $185,119 | 12% |
| 4 | $36,000 | $237,833 | 16% |
| 5 | $36,000 | $294,923 | 20% |
| 6 | $36,000 | $356,751 | 24% |
| 7 | $36,000 | $423,711 | 28% |
| 8 | $36,000 | $496,229 | 33% |
| 9 | $36,000 | $574,765 | 38% |
| 10 | $36,000 | $659,820 | 44% |
| 11 | $36,000 | $751,935 | 50% |
| 12 | $36,000 | $851,695 | 57% |
| 13 | $36,000 | $959,735 | 64% |
| 14 | $36,000 | $1,076,742 | 72% |
| 15 | $36,000 | $1,203,461 | 80% |
| 16 | $36,000 | $1,340,697 | 89% |
| 17 | $36,000 | $1,489,324 | 99% |
| 18 | $36,000 | $1,650,287 | 110% |
Estimates only — not financial, tax, or professional advice.
100% private — every number you enter is calculated in your browser and never sent to our servers.
What it calculates: FIRE Number (Target Portfolio), Gap to FIRE, Years to Financial Independence, Months to Financial Independence.
Updated 5 June 2026 · Transparent assumptions
FIRE Number = Annual Expenses / Safe Withdrawal Rate (e.g. 25x at 4%).
$60K/year, 4% SWR, $50K saved, $3K/month, 8% return.
FIRE Number
$1,500,000
Current Gap
$1,450,000
Years to FIRE
~17.1 years
Monthly Income at FIRE
$5,000
Investing $3,000/month at 8% on top of $50K already saved reaches the $1.5M target in about 17 years, which would then support roughly $5,000/month at a 4% withdrawal rate.
The single most counter-intuitive thing about a FIRE number is that your salary plays no part in it. The target is annual expenses divided by a safe withdrawal rate, and at the default 4% that is simply 25 times what you spend in a year. On $60,000 of annual expenses the number is $1,500,000, whether you earn $80,000 or $300,000. Income only changes how fast you reach it, not how big it is.
This flips the usual lever. Cutting spending does double duty: every $1,000 you trim from annual expenses lowers the target by $25,000 at a 4% rate, and it simultaneously frees up cash to invest toward that now-smaller goal. That is why frugality is so central to the FIRE movement — it attacks both sides of the equation at once, while a raise only helps one.
The 25x shorthand is just the reciprocal of a 4% withdrawal rate (1 ÷ 0.04 = 25), and the 4% figure traces to financial adviser William Bengen’s 1994 analysis of historical U.S. market returns. Testing balanced portfolios against the worst historical sequences, he found that an initial withdrawal of about 4% of the starting balance, then adjusted for inflation, lasted roughly 30 years. The later "Trinity study" reached broadly similar conclusions and helped popularise the rule.
Two things are easy to miss. First, it was calibrated to a roughly 30-year horizon — early retirees planning for 40-plus years often step down to 3% to 3.5%, which at the extreme turns 25x into closer to 28x or 33x. Second, it is a guideline drawn from one country’s past, not a guaranteed floor; future returns, sequence risk, and fees can all push the safe number lower. The withdrawal-rate field lets you dial this directly and watch the target move.
The years-to-FIRE estimate grows your current portfolio month by month — applying your expected return and adding your contributions — until it crosses the target. On the defaults ($50,000 saved, $3,000/month, 8% return) that is about 17 years. What surprises most people is which input moves that number most.
Early on, your contributions dwarf your investment returns: 8% on a $50,000 starting balance is only about $4,000 in the first year, while $3,000 a month adds $36,000. So in the accumulation phase the savings rate — the gap between what you earn and what you spend — is the dominant force, and it is the lever you control directly. Chasing a higher return adds risk and is far less reliable than simply widening that gap and investing the difference consistently. Returns take over only in the later years, once the balance is large enough for compounding to outpace fresh contributions.
A clean 25x target hides several real-world costs. The expense figure you enter is assumed to hold steady, but spending rarely does: healthcare and insurance often rise with age, a mortgage may be paid off (lowering it), and one-off costs appear. Because the entire target is a multiple of that one number, getting it wrong scales straight through — anchoring to a too-low current spend understates the goal substantially.
The projection also omits taxes (withdrawals from tax-deferred accounts are usually taxable), the variability of real markets, and sequence-of-returns risk — the danger that poor returns early in retirement do lasting damage while you are drawing down. The FIRE variants people cite (Lean, Fat, Coast, Barista) are really just different assumptions about these same inputs. Treat the output as a motivating planning estimate, not a promise or financial advice, and revisit it as your real expenses come into focus.
The 4% rule is a guideline suggesting a balanced portfolio can support annual withdrawals of about 4% of its starting value for roughly thirty years. Dividing your annual expenses by 4% is the same as multiplying by 25, which is why a FIRE number is often described as 25 times yearly spending. For a longer, 40-plus-year horizon, many people use a more cautious 3.5% (about 28.5 times expenses).
Lean FIRE targets a frugal lifestyle and a smaller portfolio. Fat FIRE aims for a comfortable lifestyle and a larger one, often thirty or more times expenses. Coast FIRE means you have already saved enough that growth alone will reach the target without further contributions. Barista FIRE blends partial independence with part-time work that covers some expenses or benefits.
Because the number is driven by your expenses, reducing spending is the most direct lever: every dollar of annual spending you cut lowers the target by 25 dollars at a 4% rate. Paying off a mortgage before retirement, relocating to a lower-cost area, or trimming recurring costs all shrink the figure you need to hit.
It is the danger that a run of poor returns early in retirement, while you are withdrawing, permanently damages a portfolio more than the same returns would later. Selling assets to fund withdrawals during a downturn locks in losses. Keeping a cash cushion, staying flexible with spending, and using a conservative withdrawal rate all help manage it.
The years-to-FIRE projection grows your portfolio with your expected return and contributions but does not separately inflate your expenses over time. Since your real spending may rise with inflation, consider expressing the expense figure in the terms you expect at retirement, or use a more conservative withdrawal rate to build in a buffer.
No. Reaching the number means work becomes optional, not mandatory. Many people who achieve financial independence keep working in some form because they enjoy it, want extra security, or prefer a slower transition. The number is a milestone of freedom and choice rather than a deadline to stop.
Figures on this page are checked against primary, authoritative sources. Links open in a new tab.
Finance disclaimer
Results are estimates based on the figures you enter and standard formulas. Rates, fees, taxes, and lender terms vary and change over time, so confirm important numbers with your lender or a qualified professional. This is educational information, not financial advice.
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Published 9 September 2026